Why the euro-dollar parity is important

In a year that has seen many economic fireworks go off - exceptionally high inflation, aggressive rate hikes, contracting economies - it is tough for yet another one to stand out. Yet, recently it did. 

The euro has now depreciated against the US dollar enough that each euro equals a dollar, also known as the euro-dollar parity. It could fall even further. 

Why is it important? 

This is the first time it has happened in almost 20 years, which is essentially the entire time period since the euro was first introduced. This means that the euro is the weakest it has ever been. Which in turn has a host of implications for investments and, of course, the economy. 

The good news

For EU investors who have put in money in the US financial markets, returns just got bigger. This is probably a positive even for investors elsewhere, who hold euro denominated international financial assets. And going by forecasts of an even weaker euro, things for this segment can look even sweeter going forward. 

Exporters in the EU have also become more competitive. How China used a weak currency to become the factory for the world is history. There can be significant power in a falling exchange rate to boost the economy, particularly right now. 

Stranger Things, Season 4 - Thoughts on Episode 1

The episode starts with a flashback and the bang. The Hawkins National Laboratory is running its psychic tests on gifted children when everything goes wrong. Before even the opening theme, we see a massacre there and a much younger Eleven compared to when we saw her last, in complete rage with blood running from her eyes. It’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but then Stranger Things fans know that they can expect a lot of hard-to-digest visuals.

Most of the remaining episode is lighter. Though Eleven who now goes by the name of Jane, having moved with Joyce (Winona Ryder) and her two sons Will and Jonathan away from Hawkins, is being picked on at school. Having lost her powers and suffering grief and trauma, what after the last season, she is still her gentle self but having a really hard time coping. And Max is still processing Billie, her step-brother’s gruesome death. Even then, it is a relief to see that at least for now these lovely girls are in relatively predictable environments, not fighting inter-dimensional entities when they should be growing up safe!

The other characters are mostly introduced with a lot of fun banter, making the vibe of the episode even lighter. Mike and Nancy’s sibling moments, Robin and Steve talking about their love interests and Dustin and Suzie still bonded over their mutual love for tech all make for very watchable re-introductions. There is even a fun new character called Eddie, who runs a board game club called ‘Hellfire Club’. He gets quite the introduction, and does he perform or what. He manages to hold attention with his acting, helped by a character that is full of personality. I was wondering when I saw him perform, is this guy supposed to be high?

Oh wait, he is a drug dealer. And this is where the real story begins. Sweet cheerleader Chrissy, another new character, is having auditory hallucinations and needs substances to repress them. Enter Eddie. The most unlikely two people to be seen together end up driving this story forward. Making for a really dark end to the first episode. I won’t reveal what it is. But if the beginning was shocking, the end was even more so. And we are not talking about secret psychic projects anymore. We are talking full-blown demonic attacks. I couldn’t wait to watch the second episode.

Indo-Russian bilateral relations: Striking a delicate balance

Even as many parts of the western world denounce Russia's invasion of Ukraine, India has maintained its distance from this outcry. It even refrained from voting on a UN resolution to this effect. 

India's oil challenge

There is good reason for this. India's oil consumption is massive, which should come as no surprise considering that it is a heavily populated, fast emerging economy. As per a recent BBC report, it is the third largest global oil consumer, after the US and China, which incidentally are also the two biggest economies in the world today. 

But here's India's problem. It has always been an oil importer, and this one commodity has been its Achilles heel for a long time. In fact, the story of India's transformation into a globalised economy, has its seeds in the oil shock of 1990 following the Gulf War that saw Iraq invading Kuwait. 

A balance of payments crisis ensued and India wound up indebted to the IMF. It was then that it undertook a structural transformation that allowed for far more relaxed trade and investments. The rest is history. 

A summer day and Monet's art

This weekend, I was at a pub by the Cherwell river and it was a wonderful sunny day. The picture above was clicked there. I found a shady spot to sit and enjoy the scenery. But if the seeming solitude in this photo gives the impression that there was no one around, that is a wrong impression. 

The place was teeming with people. And after all this time of being housebound and in seclusion, it was a delight to watch. There were people on boats, those who were swimming and those like me, who were just hanging around. They actually reminded me of this Monet painting I had posted a while on my Instagram page. It is titled Bathers at La Grenouillere (see below), though I had to look hard to find the bathers.

A second lockdown birthday and ushering in the Roaring ‘20s?

What's common between a 2nd lockdown birthday and the Roaring '20s you ask?

 

A high potential for a consumer demand comeback, that is what's common.

Let me dial back a bit.

I celebrated my second birthday in lockdown around two weeks ago. It was a jovial day, full of gregarious chats with family and lifetime friends. Beautiful wishes on social media - facebook and LinkedIn, mainly - made it even more special. I cut my favourite, if atypical, birthday cake: a cheesecake. And, I had some bubbly to go with it.

Sounds like a pretty decent day, right?

Except that this year, unlike the last one, I really felt like being out and about on my special day. And I could not, so I am somewhat impatiently holding-off the real celebration till such time that I can. Outdoor dining opens here from April 12 onwards.

But in feeling this impatience - I finally connected with a sense of what has widely been called the ‘pent-up consumer demand’. This demand is expected to lead to a spurt in consumer spending over the rest of the year and maybe even carry over into 2022.

In fact, some forecasts are saying that we may even be back to the ‘Roaring 20s’, which refers to the 1920s - a decade of economic boom in the western world.

Pan’s Labyrinth: Where reality is magickal

When there's no power in the hands of a person, they can become endowed with magick. We see this theme running across supernatural stories. 

Think of Harry Potter living in the closet till he discovers his destiny, fairy tales like Cinderella where the leading lady gets a magickal transformation or even super-hero flicks like Deadpool where a dying man mutates into a super-hero.

There are other ways to look at it, but this is one lens through which I am inclined to interpret Del Toro's 2006 Spanish fantasy film, Pan's Labyrinth.

Set in 1944, where power in Spain has gone into a fascist regime that is clamping down on what is remaining of the resistance, the story is about a little girl, Ofelia, who has moved to a military outpost. It so happens that her mother marries the captain of the outpost after her father's death and is heavily pregnant at the start of the film. 

Happy New Year : Looking back, to look ahead

Yet another new year is upon us. There is, of course the joy of moving forward.

But there is also some trepidation.

2020 was a tough one, and the challenges we faced last year follow us into this one too. Yet, I think it came with its own kind of illumination.

There are at least 3 facets of life that I have walked away enriched about because of all that 2020 brought with it: